How super forecasters predict things that are difficult to find the exact figure.

Chapter 5 discusses how super forecasters predict things that are difficult to find the exact
figure. In the text, the author gives two examples of Fermi-ize and a murder mystery which do
not have accurate answers but are required. In the first example, Fermi asks how many piano
tuners in Chicago (Tetlock & Gardner, 2016). The second example examines Arafat's mysterious

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