Executives regularly make decisions in the face of uncertainty. When planning the future of the organization, how should leaders make

Executives regularly make decisions in the face of uncertainty. When planning the future of the organization, how should leaders make

Learning Goal: I’m working on a business writing question and need an explanation and answer to help me learn.

Assessment 4 Instructions: Scenario and Alternative Futures

Write a 5-8 page analysis in which you evaluate and synthesize information from various scenario frameworks and choose one of those frameworks to apply to the pharmaceutical industry.

Executives regularly make decisions in the face of uncertainty. When planning the future of the organization, how should leaders make assumptions for the near or long term? Scenario planning is a technique for identifying forward-looking alternative realities in which the organization can sustain itself.

A scenario is defined by Godet and Roubelat (1996, p. 8) as a “description of a future situation and the course of events which allows one to move forward from the original situation to the future situation.” Scenario frameworks are used for preparing for alternative futures but not as a vehicle for forecasting the future.

Business scenarios are used as analytic tools to inform strategic decisions. A business scenario is a view of a possible competitive environment based on a set of assumptions about important uncertainties that face the business and industry and may affect organizational performance. For example, decisions on competitive strategy such as new product development are based on projections of product and market conditions.

Using frameworks, companies can create scenarios, allowing leaders and managers to be more cognizant of the external environment and status of their company. Scenarios can be of three major categories: (1) exploratory, starting from past trends leading to a likely future; (2) anticipatory or plausible built on different definitions of the future, desired or feared (the Oxford method); and (3) probabilistic stance (best case/worst case) (Godet & Roubelat, 1996; Ramirez et al. (2017).

This assessment gives you the opportunity to evaluate the four scenario-building frameworks presented in the readings and apply the frameworks to plan for the future of one segment of the pharmaceutical industry. You will use the Scenario and Alternative Futures Template to complete your assessment.

References

Godet, M., & Roubelat, F. (1996). Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios. Long Range Planning, 29(2), 164–171.

Ramirez, R., Churchhouse, S., Palermo, A., & Hoffmann, J. (2017). Using scenario planning to reshape strategy. MIT Sloan Management Review, 58(4), 31–37.

INSTRUCTIONS

INDUSTRY SEGMENTS

Choose one of the following industry segments for this assessment:

United States name-brand pharmaceutical manufacturers develop prescription and over-the-counter products that are used to prevent or treat illnesses in humans or animals. Name-brand drugs and medication have patent protection. This industry does not include nutritional supplement or cosmetics manufacturers. In 2020 the industry size was $205 billion in revenue (Kennedy, 2021, 32541a).

United States generic pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturers develop prescription and over-the-counter drug products that are used to prevent or treat illnesses in humans or animals. Generic drugs are produced and distributed without patent protection, and industry operators are not significantly engaged in the research and development of new drugs. The industry does not include manufacturers of nutritional supplements or cosmetic beauty products. In 2020 the industry size was $58 billion in revenue (Kennedy, 2021, 32541b).

PART 1: SCENARIO SYNTHESIS

The first portion of your assessment requires you to evaluate the following four scenario frameworks by critically assessing their main ideas or constructs and synthesizing the research findings. You will evaluate the research of Day & Schoemaker (2005), Godet & Roubelat (1996), Hussain et al. (2017), and Ramirez et al. (2017) using the Scenario Synthesis Matrix (Table 1) section of the Scenario and Alternative Futures Template [DOCX]. Remember, as in all of the course assessments, all supplied and researched articles should be entered into your Capstone Literature Matrix.

The matrix is a synthesis, not a summary. A synthesis requires different main points or arguments presented by the authors from each of the scenario articles on their respective scenario frameworks. Complete the following steps:

  1. Evaluate and identify the main points of each article.
  2. Populate the first column of the synthesis matrix with the main points.
  3. Work down the column from article to article. How does each article relate to the main points identified? Note: some articles may not cover all of the main ideas listed. Leave the field blank if the article does not address that main point.
  4. Complete the final column: your synthesis.
  5. Provide an introduction to the matrix and the process steps you followed. The matrix itself will be followed by a written summation of your findings on scenario constructs and frameworks and their application.

PART 2: SCENARIO FRAMEWORK FOR PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY

You are a consultant hired to facilitate a meeting of executives at MiracleDrugs to conduct a decade-futures look. As the consultant, review the industry discovery summary of your research in the IBISWorld industry database that you previously provided to the client. Complete the following for this section:

  1. Identify which scenario framework from Part 1 you will use to facilitate the meeting and explain why you chose this one over the others.
  2. Identify five current state pharmaceutical industry trends or performance indicators essential to begin developing 10-year scenarios.
  3. Based upon the selected framework, create five trigger questions for the executive team to use in creating 10-year pharma scenarios.
    • Remember to choose the name-brand pharmaceutical industry as discussed in US Industry (NAICS) Report 32541A or the generic pharmaceutical industry using US Industry (NAICS) Report 32541B.
    • Trigger questions are provocative prompts for creating innovative solutions to problems. “What if” is a great way of asking trigger questions that would shake up or change the industry.
    • Justify your selection and include the current industry outlook based on your research. To help you in your analysis, take the time to review the Day and Schoemaker (2005) article Scanning the Periphery, which offers valuable insights on the skill sets needed for futures thinking.

Note: You will need a minimum of three references in addition to the provided readings. Add any new references to the Capstone Literature Matrix and include the Excel document with your assessment submission. Refer to the DB8415 Library Guide as needed.

Your assessment should include the following headings:

  • Introduction.
  • Part 1: Scenario Synthesis.
  • Part 2: Scenario Framework for Pharmaceutical Industry.
  • Conclusion.
  • References.

Review the scoring guide to ensure that you meet all criteria before submitting your assessment.

ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENTS

As you complete your assessment, be sure your submission meets the following guidelines:

  • Capstone Literature Matrix: Submit the literature matrix Excel file with the articles for this assessment entered.
  • Written communication: Use error-free doctoral-level writing, with original (nonplagiarized) content, logical phrasing, and accurate word choices.
  • Scholarship: Use a combination of at least three professional and scholarly sources in addition to the supplied readings to support your main points and analysis.
  • APA formatting: Format all references and citations according to current APA style and formatting guidelines. Refer to the Academic Writer as needed.
  • Font and font size: Use an APA-compliant font, 12 points, throughout.
  • Length: Submit 5–7 double-spaced content pages plus cover and reference pages.
  • Recite: Use Recite to confirm that your in-text citations match the reference list at the end of your assessment and make any needed corrections before submitting your assessment.
  • File naming protocol: Follow the standard naming conventions for any files you upload. Refer to the DBA Submissions Requirements for details.

COMPETENCIES MEASURED

By successfully completing this assessment, you will demonstrate your proficiency in the course competencies through the following assessment scoring guide criteria:

  • Competency 1: Use visualization tools and frameworks to present complex data clearly, professionally, and logically.
    • Convey purpose, in an appropriate tone and style, incorporating supporting evidence and adhering to organizational, professional, and scholarly writing standards.
  • Competency 2: Critically analyze synthesized research findings of other scholars while comparing to personal knowledge to inform decisions.
    • Identify the main points of each article.
    • Synthesize the main points of the articles.
  • Competency 3: Identify the differences between a current state and desired state, and discuss the gap between the two.
    • Describe five current state pharma industry trends or performance indicators essential to begin development of 10-year scenarios.
  • Competency 4: Evaluate strategic decision making models and frameworks to assist in solving business financial problems.
    • Explain the choice of the scenario framework used for the case study.
  • Competency 6: Create a strategy supported by management framework to address a business problem evidenced by management accounting data.
    • Write five trigger questions for an executive team to use to create 10-year pharma scenarios.

Resources: Business Scenarios

Business scenarios and strategic decisions are often conflated. Business scenarios are used as analysis tools to inform strategic decisions. A business scenario is a view of a possible future competitive environment based on a set of assumptions about important uncertainties facing the business and industry that may affect organizational performance. For example, decisions on competitive strategy such as new product development are based on scenarios of future product and market conditions. This assessment gives you the opportunity to evaluate four scenario-building frameworks discussed in the readings. We suggest starting your review of these essential resources with The Management Centre video describing scenario development.

7 days ago

Resources: Synthesizing Articles

This assessment requires you to synthesize the main points of several articles. This video will help you understand what synthesis is and how to avoid common mistakes.

7 days ago

Resources: Professional Development Framework

In previous courses, you began to create a Professional Development Framework to improve your knowledge, skills, and competencies, and to develop your academic and professional identity as a DBA scholar-practitioner. Development of each domain is included in a different course:DB8400/DB-FPX8400: Knowledge & Scholarly Thinking.DB8420/DB-FPX8420: Advocate for Change.DB8630/DB-FPX8630 (or DB8730/DB-FPX8730): Personal Effectiveness and Professional Identity.DB9801/DB-FPX9801: Applied Research Competencies.DB9804/DB-FPX9804: Final Framework included in your Presentation of Capstone Project.To continue your growth between these courses, we suggest that you take some time to think back on your doctoral journey so far and write a brief reflection in your Professional Development Journal [DOCX]. You may consider addressing one or more of the following questions.Have you discussed your framework plan with your informal contact network? If so, how? If not, why?How many of your goals have you acted upon? Describe the impact you’ve experienced.How has your framework influenced how you perceive yourself?Looking forward to domains you have not yet developed, what are your current strengths in those domain areas? What skills might you like to develop?This is a suggested activity that you may choose to do. Your journal is not graded in this course and you do not need to submit it to your instructor.If you would like to review the framework, see the following:DBA Professional Development Framework.DBA Professional Development Framework Guide [PDF].

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